Fmr Adviser Debunks Modi’s ‘Green Shoots’, Economy Shrinking 17%, Told Off for Criticising Budget
- 3 years ago
In a 60-minute interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, where Dr. Rathin Roy talks substantially about his reasons for resigning as Director of the NIPFP and confirms that he was told off for criticising the Finance Minister’s first budget and advised not to talk to media that are considered critical of the government, Dr. Roy said that in the worst case scenario nominal growth for the full year could fall between 14-17%. In the best case scenario it would fall 12%. Assuming inflation is 5% (the latest CPI figure is 6.09%) this means real GDP growth will fall by a range between 7% and 12%.
However, Dr. Roy told The Wire that whilst he is reluctant to accept any of the data that others have used to claim green shoots are visible, he does believe that agricultural data is “much more credible”. Nonetheless, he made a point of saying he cannot understand how it’s claimed that the acreage under kharif has gone up by 44%. As he put it, this suggests that 44% wasn’t cultivated last year. Dr. Roy said that if community transmission of Covid-19 in rural India does not happen till September 80% of agricultural output can be saved. Speaking about the economic crisis’s impact on poverty Dr. Roy said it was complicated because each year some people are lifted out of poverty whilst others fall into it. The reasons for the latter are often personal tragedies and illness. This year, however, there would also be the additional pressure of Covid-19 and the collapsing economy. Therefore, although he would not cite a number, the number of people who would fall back into poverty would grow. It definitely would be more than last year.
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However, Dr. Roy told The Wire that whilst he is reluctant to accept any of the data that others have used to claim green shoots are visible, he does believe that agricultural data is “much more credible”. Nonetheless, he made a point of saying he cannot understand how it’s claimed that the acreage under kharif has gone up by 44%. As he put it, this suggests that 44% wasn’t cultivated last year. Dr. Roy said that if community transmission of Covid-19 in rural India does not happen till September 80% of agricultural output can be saved. Speaking about the economic crisis’s impact on poverty Dr. Roy said it was complicated because each year some people are lifted out of poverty whilst others fall into it. The reasons for the latter are often personal tragedies and illness. This year, however, there would also be the additional pressure of Covid-19 and the collapsing economy. Therefore, although he would not cite a number, the number of people who would fall back into poverty would grow. It definitely would be more than last year.
Like our work? Click here to support The Wire: https://thewire.in/support
The founding premise of The Wire is this: if good journalism is to survive and thrive, it can only do so by being both editorially and financially independent. This means relying principally on contributions from readers and concerned citizens who have no interest other than to sustain a space for quality journalism. As a publication, The Wire will be firmly committed to the public interest and democratic values.
We publish in four different languages!
For English, visit www.thewire.in
for Hindi: http://thewirehindi.com/
for Urdu: http://thewireurdu.com
for Marathi: https://marathi.thewire.in
If you are a young writer or a creator, you can submit articles, essays, photos, poetry – anything that’s straight out of your imagination – to LiveWire, The Wire’s portal for the young, by the young. https://livewire.thewire.in/
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