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1 Existing fitness centers will expand

Owners and operators of fitness facilities that are active today will have the opportunity to expand, says Frank McDuff, senior vice president of CSI Software, Houston, Texas. "I think there will have to be a vast expansion of facilities," he says. "The climate will be right for small and mid-sized club operators to grow their businesses." Paul Schaller, president of ABC Financial Services Inc., Little Rock, Ark., agrees: "I think we'll see more and more of the medium-sized operators become larger operators, and the larger operators become even larger."




2 Small facilities will open

"I don't see much movement in the progression toward truly national chains, like Bally's already is and like 24 Hour Fitness will likely become," says Michael Rojas, president of Iron Grip Barbell Company, Santa Ana, Calif.

"I think what we'll see is more of these facilities being smaller," says Robert Riches, president of ASF International, Highlands Ranch, Colo. "The majority of independent clubs in the future are probably going to be opening at 10,000 [square] feet and less."

3 Competition will heat up

With the numbers of fitness facilities increasing, competition for new members will be fierce. "Competition, especially for the smaller independent clubs, will increase, as the major chains grow their numbers and the chains themselves are acquired by investment companies, such as the recent acquisition [of] 24 Hour Fitness by Forstmann Little," says John Aglialoro, president of Cybex International, Medway, Mass.

4 Location will become more important

One way fitness centers can beat the competition in the next 20 years is to narrow their focus to a small community, Aglialoro of Cybex says.